Oil Price Surge Ahead – What It Means for Your Driving Costs

Oil Prices Could Spike Further – Here's the Math

SEB's chief commodity analyst is sounding the alarm: if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and the Trump administration fails to normalise the situation within a few months, oil prices face a significant upward shock – and that shock lands directly at the fuel pump. The strait carries roughly 20% of the world's oil supply, meaning every day it stays closed tightens the global market further.

What Does a Price Rise Actually Cost You?

Let's put numbers on it. Yesterday's average price for 95E10 petrol in Finland was €2.125/litre (polttoaine.net). A further 20% rise in crude pushes pump prices to an estimated €2.55/litre.

• Average driver: ~15,000 km per year
• Average petrol car: 7 l/100 km → 1,050 litres per year
• At today's price: €2,231/year
• After a further 20% increase: €2,678/year
• Difference: +€447/year, or roughly +€37/month

That's money leaving your wallet without a single extra kilometre driven.

What Does This Mean for You?

If you drive a petrol car, you're directly exposed to a geopolitical risk you have zero control over. Electric vehicle charging costs don't move with oil prices – charging overnight at home still costs the same €0.03–0.05 per kilometre regardless of what happens in the Persian Gulf.

A standard hybrid softens the blow slightly, but the petrol component keeps you exposed. A fully electric car or a plug-in hybrid (PHEV) offers the strongest protection, especially if most of your daily driving happens on battery alone.

The smartest move right now is to run the numbers on your own situation before the pump price does it for you.