Jet fuel doubled — but your diesel car already costs €230 more per year since the war

Lufthansa announced this week it is cancelling 20 000 flights from its summer schedule because jet fuel prices have doubled since the war in Iran began. The headlines talk about airlines and summer holiday tickets, but the same crude oil shock flows straight through Finland's diesel pumps and into nearly every commuter's budget.

€230/year more — and that is just the fuel line

Diesel in Finland costs an average of 2.229 €/l on 9 May 2026 (polttoaine.net). Earlier this year, before the Strait of Hormuz crisis escalated, the price was around 2 €/l. The gap is roughly 0.18–0.20 €/l.

For a typical commuter driving 20 000 km/year in a diesel car at 6 l/100 km, that's 1 200 litres of fuel per year. The war's price spike means:

1 200 l × 0.19 €/l ≈ €230/year extra — if the price holds at this level.

Petrol drivers see a smaller hit: 95E10 is now 2.046 €/l and a same-mileage driver pays around €170/year more than at the start of the year. For van drivers or company-car users at 30 000–40 000 km/year, multiply by 1.5–2× — €350–460 extra per year.

What this means for you

Two levels, two different decisions.

Short term: €230/year won't break a household. But it's money that disappears from the bottom of the monthly budget unnoticed — about €19/month more on the fuel line. In a two-car family where both commute on combustion, that's already €400–500/year. Roughly the price of one return flight to southern Europe.

Long term: This is the second time in four years a Middle East crisis has redrawn the Finnish driver's fuel budget. The lifecycle comparison between an electric and a combustion car looks completely different at today's prices. Over a 6–8 year ownership window, the gap can be €2 000–4 000 in the EV's favour — if home charging works and you drive more than 15 000 km/year.

The reverse holds too: if you drive under 10 000 km/year and already own a paid-off diesel, switching to an EV may not pay back even at these fuel prices. The depreciation hit on a new car eats the fuel savings before they accrue.

The Iran war won't make the EV decision for you. It just shifts the line. Where yours falls depends on how much you drive, where you charge, and how many years your current car still has in it.